– fordi tiden kræver et MODSPIL

12. Oct 2005

Moderne amerikansk risikovurdering

 
Citizen Dane linker til et referat fra en konference om national sikkerhed på Princeton-universitetet.

Det er nok værd at lægge mærke til dens konklusioner, specielt er det værd at lægge mærke til, hvilke trusler anses for vigtige - og hvilke, der fylder mindre:
  • Kina:
    The rough consensus seemed to be that China poses at least as serious a medium and long-term threat as Islamic terrorism, but that we need to be careful not to shoot ourselves in the foot by reacting to China in ways that undercut what ought otherwise be major economic benefits we derive from its rise.
  • Europa:
    ...many of those present were convinced that Europe is near the start of an irreversible decline in global importance. (...) Bottom line is we will badly need something we lack today: a bigger bench of allies from around the world willing to step up to confront threats.
  • Ikke-politiske trusler:
    The threat of avian flu or similar could kill many more than any terrorist attack, and that insufficient steps are being taken to prevent and prepare for such a threat. (...) Participants understood very clearly that a "natural" disaster or epidemic could well become the next major foreign policy crisis.
  • Irak:
    Though opinions were divided, the majority of those I spoke to favored the US withdrawing the bulk of its troops in 2006. It was not that they disagreed on the potentially devastating consequences of Iraq becoming a failed state, nor that they had any confidence that the country would hold together. They were just convinced that the continued American presence was doing more harm than good.
  • Krigen mod terror:
    The overall view was that we risk overlooking other serious threats by focusing single-mindedly on terror. The view that the greatest terrorist threat may emanate not from the Mideast but from alienated Muslim youth in Europe was also voiced.
Med andre ord: Krigen mod terror fylder alt for meget i såvel den politiske prioritering som folks bevidsthed, og andre trusler (naturkatastrofer og epidemier) er langt vigtigere at have styr på.

Eller, sagt med andre ord: Folk i hele verden og især den vestlige er godt på vej til at prisgive deres borgerlige rettigheder i en "kamp mod terror", som både er inderligt overflødig i betragtning af de trusler, verden ellers står over for og skadelig i sin trækken ressourcer væk fra de områder, hvor de kunne gøre gavn - som vi så det i forbindelse med orkanen Katrina.

Red pill, anyone?

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